The financial landscape is constantly changing in Australia. Thus, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been actively adjusting the cash rate throughout the year. Particularly, it all began on May 3, 2022, when the RBA decided to increase the cash rate from its historically low level of 0.10% per annum to 0.35% per annum — it was their first rate hike since November 2010.
Since that pivotal decision, the RBA has made a series of rate hikes. Namely, four instances of 0.50% increments and seven instances of 0.25% increments, summing up to a total of 11 cash rate increases. Eventually, the cash rate has risen to its present level of 4.10%.
As we approach the end of year 2023, everyone will wonder whether the RBA will hike interest rates in November or remain the same as now. Worry no more! This guide may specify your concerns and uncertainties regarding RBI interest rate predictions for November. Let’s scroll down to learn more.
Will the RBA Hike Interest rates in November?
Most experts and analysts, unfortunately, anticipate that RBA will increase interest rates from 4.10% per annum to 4.35% per annum in November. Several reasons fuel this RBA cash rate prediction, which is also RBI interest rate prediction. I.e., the RBA cash rate typically influences the interest rates banks charge their customers for loans and deposits. Let’s take a look at a list of key factors that influence these unfavourable RBI interest rate predictions 2023 Australia
Inflation Concerns
The country’s current inflation rate still remains significantly above the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. This can prompt the RBA to raise interest rates in November, as they can optimise a favourable inflation rate.
Economic Growth
The Australian economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, with strong growth in production, exports, and investment. This can boost the confidence of the RBA to raise interest rates.
Housing Market
The rising property prices can also contribute to these displeasing interest rate predictions for 2023 Australia. This is because the RBA may consider that raising interest rates would be a potential strategy for both mitigating inflation and addressing the concern of rapidly increasing property prices.
Low Unemployment Rates
The unemployment rate in Australia decreased to as low as 3.6%, which is more than expected and below the market standard. Besides, the participation rate (a metric that shows the percentage of the population actively seeking employment) also declined to 66.7% from the previous month’s 67%. The improved employment situation among Australians may potentially lead to an interest rate hike in November.
Global Economic
The current exchange rate of the Australian dollar is significantly low against the US dollar. This factor may reduce the need for the RBA to maintain low interest rates to support the exchange rate and external competitiveness. It could also be a contributing factor in unfavourable RBA cash rate predictions.
Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ Rate Predictions for November 2023
Let’s take a look at the November interest rate predictions for 2023 Australia, according to the top four banks in Australia:
| Bank | Cash rate peak |
| CBA | 4.35% |
| Westpac | 4.35% |
| NAB | 4.35% |
| ANZ | 4.35% |
When Will Interest Rates Come Down?
Among these four big banks, Westpac and NAB have presented their outlooks regarding the future RBA cash rate prediction. Namely, NAB anticipates at least one more 0.25% rate hike, whereas Westpac foresees interest rates holding steady until the following year. Nevertheless, both banks share the prediction that interest rates will see a decline by September of the subsequent year.
| Bank | Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | Jun 2024 | Sept 2024 | Dec 2024 | March 2025 |
| Westpac | 4.10% | 4.10% | 4.10% | 3.85% | 3.60% | 3.35% |
| NAB | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.35% | 3.85% | 3.35% | 3.10% |
What Does an Interest Rate Pause Mean for Home Loans?
An interest rate pause for home loans refers to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deciding to keep interest rates unchanged at a particular time. Namely, during this period, RBI impedes itself from raising or lowering the official cash rate, making it significant implications for home loan borrowers. Here are certain key benefits that home loan borrowers can expect due to implementing the Interest Rate Pause.
- Lower Monthly Repayment: An interest rate pause means no more interest hikes — at least, as long as the RBA keep pausing the interest rate. This can help them save some money and ease their financial burden.
- More Certainty and Confidence: The interest rate pause may also provide some certainty and confidence to borrowers worried about the dynamic nature of interest rates and the impact on their budgets.
- Optimised Market Condition: Borrowers can have more flexibility and choice in their home loan options, as the pause may create more competition and innovation among lenders. This can help them to find the best deal that suits their needs and preferences and also to negotiate better terms and conditions.